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Your Essential Briefing on Oilfield News, Energy Market Moves, and the Price of Oil
OG Oil Gas Energy News May 27, 2025.
The Valve Guy
May 26, 2025
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Your Essential Briefing on Oilfield News, Energy Market Moves, and the Price of Oil
Welcome to your latest update from OG Oil Gas Energy News, covering key developments from around May 27, 2025. We're tracking global energy market dynamics, keeping a close eye on crude oil price trends, natural gas market signals, and the burgeoning green energy sector. This is your source for deep insights into the energy sector today.
Crude Oil Price Analysis: Navigating Market Jitters and Technical Levels
Around May 27, 2025, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price has demonstrated resilience1. Despite headlines suggesting depressed oil prices, market jitters related to Trump's tariff tactics, and concerns over U.S. debt, WTI has held firmly above the significant $60 psychological level1....
Trump's tariff negotiation tactics involve setting high demands and then extending deadlines for talks2. Last week in May concluded with a slump in Eurozone tariff-affected markets, but this week began with a tariff delay2. The U.S. dollar appears to be weakening, which is aligning major currency and commodity pairs on a potentially bullish path3.
Oil's recent rebound seems to be a reaction to oversupply fears from OPEC's production increases being priced into the market, alongside trade-related news3. New factors influencing market sentiment include Trump's evolving policies, revised tariff timelines, and ongoing debt concerns as the quieter summer season approaches3. Geopolitical risks also remain a factor4. Potential U.S.-Gulf AI deals raising concerns about technology leakage to China or Russia could trigger bearish reactions4. The conflict between Israel and Iran might create upside risk if oil supply is disrupted4. For now, market attention is also on summer demand and upcoming U.S. economic data like the final GDP reading4.
According to technical analysis conducted in the days leading up to May 28, crude oil was locked in a resilient sideways range4.... There is strong support identified between $55 and $58, while a key resistance zone is noted between $63 and $655.... Momentum indicators provided a mixed picture6. The Daily RSI was neutral, suggesting that both bullish and bearish outcomes were possible6. The Weekly SI indicated a clean bounce from 2020 extremes, which could point towards underlying bullish potential6.
Ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled for May 28, 2025, technical analysis highlighted a compelling bottoming structure in Crude Oil Futures (CL)5. An Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was observed on the Daily timeframe, coinciding with a bullish flag formation5. The neckline of this pattern was at 64.195.
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Bullish Scenarios: A sustained move above $63.80–$65 could lead to potential price gains towards $66.90, $69.20, and $716. A breakout above the neckline at 64.19 in the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern could trigger a measured move target around 70.595. This bullish scenario is ideal for momentum traders leveraging chart patterns and fundamental data from the OPEC meeting7.
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Bearish Scenarios: A decisive break below $58 would expose downside risk towards $56.70 and $556. If the price drops below 60.02, the base of the bullish flag, the bullish thesis from the Inverted Head and Shoulders would fail, potentially setting up a bearish scenario targeting 53.585. In a scenario of extreme market turbulence, further losses down to $49 remain possible6. This could potentially set up for new long-term bullish positioning6.
OPEC Decisions and Rising Crude Oil Inventories
Global oil prices are being held in check by rising crude inventories and OPEC's decision to increase oil production8. Around May 26, global benchmark Brent was trading around $64.17 per barrel, and WTI was near $61.479. Both benchmarks were lingering near four-year lows, causing forecasters to lower price predictions for the current and next year9.
Steeper price declines were prevented intraday after U.S. President Donald Trump decided to postpone tariffs on the European Union, allowing for further trade negotiations10. This tariff saga began in April and has fueled fears of a global trade war10.
Expectations for potentially lower oil prices are also influenced by U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the decision by the crude producers' group OPEC+ to hike its output10. The impact of the OPEC+ decision is particularly significant10. The market was factoring in a potential third consecutive output hike in July by OPEC+ of around 411,000 barrels per day10. Earlier in May, OPEC+ had already agreed to increase oil production for a second consecutive month, raising output for June by a similar 411,000 bpd10.
The announced June hike by OPEC+ will bring the total combined increases for April, May, and June to 960,000 bpd11. This represents 44% of the 2.2 million bpd in cuts that were previously agreed upon since 202211. This move by OPEC+ is seen as a clear bid for a greater market share, especially at the expense of non-OPEC producers like U.S. light sweet crude suppliers11.
Rising oil inventories also contribute to the potential for lower oil prices in the near term12. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that global oil inventories remained elevated12. In its May 15 market assessment, the IEA reported that inventories rose for a second straight month to 7.7 billion barrels in March12. While this figure is below the five-year average, it indicates a change in market sentiment12. The IEA expects oil inventories to increase by an average of 720,000 bpd in 2025 and by 930,000 bpd in 202613.
Furthermore, the use of floating oil storage on tankers has been increasing, a trend noted by industry data firm Kpler since January13. Kpler's data indicated that the volume of crude oil and products stored on tankers for seven days or more rose by 14% over the month prior to May 26, reaching over 160 million barrels13. This level is reported as the highest in two years14. About 74 million barrels, or 46.25%, of this volume is thought to be crude oil, with significant portions from Iran (40%) and Russia (15%)14. Storing oil at sea is more costly than on land and is typically a last resort when onshore storage is limited14. This trend generally indicates that oil producers are finding it harder to sell their cargoes due to rising supplies or slowing demand, or both14.
Natural Gas Market Outlook: Downward Pressure Continues
Around May 26, the natural gas market experienced declines, with markets continuing to face downward pressures15.... The market was pricing in the idea of lessening demand over the coming months15.... Despite an initial gap higher on Monday, May 26, the market reversed course and fell15.... The Memorial Day holiday likely contributed to lower trading volume15.... The market was positioned near the 200-day EMA, which was flat, suggesting a lack of a clear short-term trend15....
Longer term, negativity persists in the market as demand for heating will significantly decrease17.... It is believed that most storage in the United States has been refilled after winter17.... If the market breaks down, potential price targets could be $3.00 or $2.8517.... A move below these levels could open the door to $2.0017.... If the market rallies, the $3.50 level could serve as important resistance, coinciding with the 50-day EMA17.... Some analysts remain willing to fade rallies on signs of exhaustion, as a clear catalyst for higher prices is not apparent17....
Europe's Natural Gas Supply: Outage in Norway Causes Price Rise
European natural gas prices rose on Monday, May 26, following an unplanned reduction in capacity at Norway's giant Troll gas field19.... The Troll field is the largest single supplier of natural gas to Europe20. Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for European gas trading, increased at the start of trading in Amsterdam20. This rise extended four consecutive weeks of weekly gains in European gas prices20.
The supply disruptions occurred while Europe is working to refill gas storage sites before the 2025/2026 winter season and amidst planned extensive maintenance at other Norwegian gas fields, such as the Nyhamna processing plant and the Aasta Hansteen field19.... The unplanned cuts at Troll, combined with planned maintenance, will reduce pipeline supply to Europe during the summer21. As a result, European countries may need to increase their reliance on LNG shipments to meet natural gas demand19.... Last year, the Troll field, operated by Equinor, produced record-high volumes of natural gas21.
Global Green Energy Market Trends and Growth
The worldwide green energy market continues to show significant growth and attract investment22. This market includes renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and biomass22. This expansion is driven by the necessity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition towards sustainable energy systems22. The global green energy market was valued at approximately $1.5 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach around $4.5 trillion by 203422. This represents a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% from 2025 to 203422. Another estimate suggests growth to USD 2.41 trillion by 2032 with a CAGR of 8.7%22.
By end-user application, the industrial sector holds the largest share of the green energy market at 62%, with a notable shift towards renewable sources22. The residential sector, with a 20% share, is experiencing growth in rooftop solar and home energy storage solutions22. The commercial sector, holding an 18% share, is increasingly adopting green building standards and energy-efficient systems22.
Regionally, the U.S. green energy market is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 9.3% from 2024 to 203222. This growth is supported by significant investments in solar and wind energy, aided by government policies22. Europe, particularly the EU, currently spends USD 370 billion annually on clean energy22. Countries like Germany and Spain are leading in offshore wind and solar installations within Europe22.
Major companies in the green energy market are actively involved in global projects23. Enel Green Power has started construction of a 330 MW wind complex in South Africa and initiated operations at an 87 MW photovoltaic plant in Italy, while also activating Europe's largest vanadium redox flow battery in Mallorca to boost energy storage24.... Ørsted saw a surge in share price after a stop-work order was lifted on the Empire Wind project in New York, easing concerns about U.S. offshore wind projects26.... Siemens Gamesa is restructuring to achieve break-even by 2026, focusing on expanding production capacity in its offshore business at facilities in Germany, Denmark, and France26....
Challenges in the green energy market include the variable nature of solar and wind energy, which requires reliable energy storage and backup systems28.... Uncertainty in government policies and subsidies can impact the financial viability of projects28.... Global supply chain disruptions can also affect the availability and cost of renewable energy technologies28....
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Regulatory Landscape
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is essential for reducing carbon emissions in the aviation industry30. As of May 26, 2025, policymakers in the UK, EU, and USA were actively developing regulations to speed up SAF deployment30.
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United Kingdom: The UK aims to be a global leader in SAF31. The key policy is the SAF Mandate, which requires SAF to constitute 2% of the UK aviation fuel mix from 202531. This requirement increases to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 204031. SAF must achieve at least a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to traditional jet fuel31. Fuel suppliers earn Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates for compliant SAF31. A buy-out mechanism exists where suppliers unable to meet requirements must pay a price determined by their shortfall32. The UK is also proposing a revenue certainty mechanism, likely a Guaranteed Strike Price akin to a contract-for-difference, to provide price stability for UK SAF producers32.... This mechanism is intended to be funded by aviation fuel suppliers33.
European Union: The EU has prioritized developing a SAF market34. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) framework has promoted greener fuels and set renewable energy targets for transport35. RED II included SAF and incentivized advanced biofuels and Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBOs)35. RED III, adopted in October 2023, reinforced mandates, aiming for 42.5% renewable energy by 2030 across the EU, with a 29% binding target for transport, and specific sub-targets for advanced biofuels and RFNBOs36. The ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, also adopted in October 2023, establishes direct obligations on fuel suppliers at EU airports, with mandates starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 70% by 205035.... These regulations are directly applicable in EU Member States37.
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United States: The U.S. does not have a direct federal SAF blending mandate38. It primarily uses market-driven incentives such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and state-level Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs38. Financial incentives, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits (like Section 45Z), are designed to lower SAF production costs and reduce investment risk38.
Comparing the approaches, the EU and UK use direct mandates on fuel suppliers with penalties for non-compliance, while the U.S. relies more on incentives and voluntary adoption38. Policy stability varies, with EU mandates extending to 2050 and UK mandates to 2040, whereas the U.S. IRA tax credits are set to expire by the end of 2027, potentially creating long-term investment uncertainty38. The UK and EU have stricter sustainability criteria, phasing out certain feedstocks like HEFA, while the U.S. allows a broader range of feedstocks, including corn ethanol-derived alcohol-to-jet SAF, which the EU excludes38. Enforcement is generally stricter in the EU and UK through direct penalties, while the U.S. relies on tax compliance and voluntary participation in state programs38. Despite these differences, all three regions share the objective of increasing SAF production to achieve a net-zero aviation future38.
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