🛢️ Why Are Oil Prices Falling Today?

Discover why WTI and Brent oil prices are slipping in early June 2025. Explore market data, OPEC moves, wildfires, and tariffs in our deep dive.

🌍 Answer:

Oil prices are falling today due to several converging factors:

• 📉 Rising U.S. inventories

• 💸 Saudi price cuts

• 🧯 Canada’s wildfires shutting 350K bpd

• 🧾 Trump’s tariff hikes increase market uncertainty

• 🤝 OPEC+ steady output easing supply fears

🛢️ WTI vs. Brent
📉 Trend lines, 🔥 event markers, and resistance zones

✅ Crude Oil Prices June 1-7 2025

⚡ What Is the Outlook for Natural Gas Prices This Week?

Answer:

• NG fell from $3.79 ➡️ $3.68

• Facing resistance at $3.85

• Watching support zones: $3.52 & $3.44

• Outlook = bearish unless it breaks $3.84

📉 “Why is natural gas going down June 2025?”
📊 “Natural gas technical analysis June 2025”

🔧 What Valve Manufacturer Closed a Major Deal in June 2025?

🔩 BEL Valves secured a £5 million deal for the Murlach Oil Field (North Sea)

• 🛠️ 20 high-integrity valves

• ⛽ Used on BP & NEO Energy joint venture

• 📍 Located 203km east of Aberdeenshire

• 🔧 Known for slab gate valves in high-pressure environments

🗣️ “Which valve companies are leading in oil & gas?”
🔎 “BEL Valves North Sea contract 2025”

🇦🇷 What Is Argentina’s LNG Export Plan?

🎯 Final investment decision (FID) on Phase 3 of Argentina LNG expected by end of 2025
🚢 12Mt/y capacity in Río Negro
🤝 Joint ventures with Eni & Golar LNG
📈 Goal: reach Europe & Asia
💸 Phase 2 with Shell expected by 2026

❓ “What countries are expanding LNG exports in 2025?”
❓ “Argentina LNG FID timeline”

🔥 How Are Wildfires Impacting Oil Production in Canada?

🔥 Alberta wildfires slash 7% of Canada’s oil output:

• ❌ Cenovus: 238K bpd offline

• ❌ CNR: 36.5K bpd down

• ❌ MEG Energy delays restart (70K bpd)

• 🧯 Fires threaten nearly 470K bpd capacity

• 🔥 49 active fires (as of June 6)

🗺️
🛢️ Affected regions shown with flame icons & bpd impact

📊 Price Pattern vs Key Fibonacci Levels

🎯 ABCD pattern target: $4.08–$4.12
🚫 Key support: $3.50
📉 Risk if breaks $3.44 = bearish reversal

📉 What Role Are Tariffs Playing in Oil Market Volatility?

• 🇺🇸 Trump raised steel tariffs to 50% (from 25%)

• 🇬🇧 UK exempt due to trade deal

• 📉 “TACO Trump” policy flip-flops shake markets

• 💸 Tariffs raise inflation expectations

• 📉 Strong USD = pressure on oil prices

🔍 “How do tariffs affect oil prices?”
🔍 “Steel tariffs 2025 update energy impact”

✅ Stay Updated

🎧 Tune in to today's 🎙️ OG Oil & Gas Podcast:
👉 “Will Wildfires & Tariffs Set Oil on 🔥 or 🧊?”
🌐 Listen Now on OGOilGasEnergyNews.com

💌 Subscribe for daily insights → 💥 Join the OG Newsletter

📚 SOURCES

• 🔗 BEL Valves North Sea Deal - Business Live

• 🔗 Oil Prices Down - ARMENPRESS

• 🔗 Natural Gas Price Outlook – FXEmpire

• 🔗 WTI Technical Forecast - FX Leaders

• 🔗 Wildfires Slash Canadian Oil Output - INN

• 🔗 Trump Tariff Changes - Forbes

• 🔗 Argentina LNG FID News - BNamericas

Detailed Report, June 7, 2025

Unpacking Global Market Movers & Industry Deals

Delivering insights from the wells to the markets. OGOILGASENERGYNEWS.com

Welcome to your latest update from OG Oil Gas Energy! This week, we're diving into the forces shaping crude and natural gas prices, the unpredictable world of trade policy, significant industry developments in the North Sea and Argentina, and the disruptive impact of Canadian wildfires on production.

Crude Oil Markets: Prices Slip Amid Mixed Signals

Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have seen recent shifts, influenced by a combination of technical indicators, inventory data, and geopolitical factors.

• Recent Price Movements:

  • As of June 4th, WTI Crude Oil (Light Sweet) price at NYMEX Stock Exchange was down by 0.93% to $62.60 per barrel. Brent Crude Oil price at London's ICE Stock Exchange was down by 1.09% to $64.71 per barrel on the same date.

  • Contrastingly, on June 3rd, WTI Crude Oil price at NYMEX was up by 0.51% to $63.19 per barrel, and Brent Crude Oil price at ICE was up by 0.82% to $65.42 per barrel.

  • WTI crude oil futures rose to $63.1 per barrel on Tuesday, June 3rd.

  • As of June 4th, WTI crude oil was trading near $63.40, facing resistance just below the $63.80–$64.50 supply zone. It was also reported trading at $63.12 per barrel on June 4th, after establishing a sideways consolidation pattern.

  • Brent crude oil price was seen coming off its 55-day SMA at $65.67.

• Technical Analysis Highlights for WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast:

  • Technical analysis indicates WTI crude is consolidating at $62.80 just below $63.54 resistance.

  • The price action forms a narrowing wedge below a descending trendline.

  • The 50-period EMA at $62.03 is acting as support and is part of an ascending triangle pattern, which often suggests buyers are preparing to push prices higher. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA, confirming the path of least resistance is upwards, with price trading above both dynamic indicators.

  • Key resistance is noted at $63.54, with support levels at $62.03, $61.93, and $61.02. A close above $63.54 is seen as a buy signal, targeting $64.15 and $64.82.

  • A sustained break above the $63.78 area (0.382 Fibonacci level) could target the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64.27, then the 0.618 retracement near $64.75, with an ultimate upside target at the 1.0 extension around $66.32 per barrel.

  • The MACD histogram is losing bearish momentum and the signal lines are potentially crossing bullish. The RSI is around neutral territory.

  • Resistance is also noted at $63.80–$64.50 on the 4-hour chart, coinciding with horizontal supply and the Ichimoku Cloud edge. Support on the 4-hour chart is between $61.80 and $62.72 (20/50/100 EMA cluster).

  • A confirmed 4-hour close above $64.50 could lead to a push toward $66 and even $67.90.

  • Key WTI Crude Oil Technical Zones: The bullish bias holds while price is above the $62.80–$62.00 support zone.

  • Traders are advised to watch for reversal signals near $63.54, which could indicate a pullback to $61.93.

  • Looking at Brent crude oil analysis, potential minor slips may find support around the 21 May high at 24,152 and then along the April-to-June tentative uptrend line at 23,968.

• Factors Influencing Crude Oil:

  • Brent crude oil price slipping follows rising US inventories and Saudi price cuts.

  • WTI prices have been affected by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

  • OPEC+ maintaining their July output increase alleviated oversupply concerns but kept prices firm.

  • The US dollar's drop due to renewed trade tensions and tariff threats from the Trump administration added a bullish narrative for dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil.

  • Supply concerns continue to underpin the market, with elevated tensions between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the US and Iran, keeping the possibility of sanctions in play amid the OPEC+ output boost.

Natural Gas Market: Weakness After Brief Spike

The natural gas market has shown recent weakness after a brief price spike, facing resistance at key levels.

• Recent Natural Gas Price Outlook:

  • Natural gas rose briefly above the $3.76 interim trend high on Thursday, June 5th, reaching $3.79 before falling to a three-day low of $3.62. It was set to end down for the day and below near-term support.

  • Natural gas is trading near $3.68 as of June 5th.

  • As of June 5th, natural gas was trading against a resistance barrier in the form of a rectangle near the $3.85 level.

• Natural Gas Technical Analysis:

  • A daily close below the June 4th low of $3.66 would be a sign of weakness.

  • Today’s bearish behavior on June 5th sets the stage for a potential test of support around the 50-Day MA (now at $3.52) and the 20-Day MA (currently at $3.51). Weekly support from the week of June 3rd is at $3.50.

  • The 50-Day MA, reclaimed for a third time since the April breakdown on Monday, June 2nd, represents a key price level to determine the health of the trend.

  • A decisive breakout above this week’s high (June 3rd-June 7th), prior to a deeper pullback, would provide a new bullish signal. A rally above the $3.84 swing high would trigger a continuation of the rising ABCD pattern.

  • The pattern points to an initial minimum target of $4.08. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is near $4.12, suggesting these two levels could act as a potential resistance range.

  • Key support is at $3.44, which marked a higher swing low in May. Breaking below $3.44 would increase the likelihood of further bearish behavior. This level is considered the maximum low for a deeper bearish pullback before the bullish outlook weakens.

  • The 50-day EMA sits near the $3.54 cents level. The $3.50 level is also an area traders are watching.

  • The market is described as messy, though some analysis favors the downside.

• Factors Influencing Natural Gas Market Forecast June 2025:

  • The Non-Farm Payroll announcement on Friday, June 6th, is expected to have a major influence on the natural gas market.

  • Factors like European exports and refilling tanks from winter are also playing a role.

Geopolitics and Policy: Tariffs, Trade, and Wildfires

Trade policy uncertainty and natural events are significantly impacting energy markets.

• Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Tensions:

  • The Bank of Canada noted that back-and-forth changes in US tariffs, uncertain trade negotiations, and tariff rates remaining much higher than at the start of 2025 pose risks to growth and raise inflation expectations. This has made the Bank of Canada cautious about continuing to ease monetary policy.

  • Governor Macklem highlighted that recent increases in US tariffs on steel and aluminum underline the unpredictability of US trade policy. Higher US tariffs could lower demand for Canadian exports.

  • Trump's administration has frequently changed its sweeping trade policy, with steel and aluminum import tariffs increasing to 50% on Wednesday, June 4th. This hike was announced on May 30th, raising steel tariffs from 25% to 50%. The 50% rate took effect on June 4th, except for the UK, which faces a lower 25% rate due to a trade deal.

  • The President has demonstrated numerous tariff "flip-flops," including changes regarding:

    • The basis for calculating tariffs.

    • Exemptions for certain goods like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

    • Whether tariffs would be fully reciprocal.

    • Willingness to negotiate tariffs.

    • Pausing tariffs after they took effect.

    • Plans for tariffs on specific products like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

    • Exemptions for tech products like smartphones and computers.

    • Considering pausing tariffs on automobiles.

    • Floating different tariff rates on China.

    • Stating the 10% baseline tariff would be permanent.

    • Reimposing new tariff rates without deals.

    • Threatening new tariffs on iPhones.

    • Threatening and then postponing tariffs on the European Union.

  • Trump's frequent tariff policy changes have led to the nickname "TACO Trump" on Wall Street, standing for "Trump always chickens out," referring to him lowering rates after market spooking.

• Canadian Wildfires Oil Production Loss:

  • Wildfires in Alberta, Canada's energy-rich province, have forced major oil producers to suspend nearly 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of output, which is about 7 percent of the country's total production.

  • Affected companies include Cenovus Energy (shutting down its Christina Lake facility, affecting ~238,000 bpd), Canadian Natural Resources (shutting off ~36,500 bpd at its Jackfish 1 facility), and MEG Energy (delayed restart of its Phase 2B segment, accounting for ~70,000 bpd).

  • As of June 2nd, Alberta was battling 49 active fires. The Caribou Lake wildfire alone has scorched over 61,500 hectares.

  • While physical damage to facilities appears minimal so far, the proximity of active fires to pipeline corridors and steam-assisted gravity drainage projects remains a concern. Wildfires had advanced to within 10 kilometers of sites producing nearly 470,000 bpd early on June 3rd.

  • Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, generating about 4.9 million bpd, mostly from Alberta.

  • The loss of Alberta's oil production, roughly equivalent to the amount OPEC+ recently agreed to reintroduce, is tightening the market for heavier oil grades, particularly with US sanctions restricting Venezuelan heavy crude exports and seasonal maintenance already curbing Alberta's supply.

  • Experts view these fires as among the most disruptive events since the 2016 Fort McMurray fire. The escalating pace and scale may signal a structural shift driven by climate conditions.

Oil and Gas Industry News: Deals and Development

Amidst market volatility and policy changes, the industry continues to pursue significant projects and secure new contracts.

• BEL Valves Seals Murlach Oil Field Deal:

  • Newcastle engineering company BEL Valves has secured a £5m order for the Murlach oil field development in the North Sea.

  • BEL Valves is a global leading manufacturer of high-integrity oil and gas valve technology.

  • The company supplied 20 valves to the recently recommissioned field.

  • The Murlach field is located 203km east of the Aberdeenshire coastline.

  • It is a joint venture between BP Exploration Operating Company (BPEOC) and NEO Energy.

  • The field has an expected lifespan of 11 years, with first oil extraction expected in 2025.

  • BEL Valves' slab gate valves were installed in the topside platform. They were specified due to the company's technical track record in manufacturing valves for critical applications.

  • The project director highlighted the importance of high pressure, safety critical shut down valves and the trust the industry places in their products. BEL Valves has been manufacturing valves for the oil industry since the mid-1960s.

• Argentina LNG Export Projects Latin America Update:

  • Argentina's national oil company YPF is targeting a Final Investment Decision (FID) by the end of 2025 on phase 3 of its Argentina LNG master plan.

  • YPF chief Horacio Marín announced paperwork would be signed, constituting a "pre-final investment decision," following an MOU inked with Italian counterpart Eni. Another important company is expected to enter the joint venture.

  • Phase 3 is earmarked for Río Negro province and involves producing roughly 12Mt/y of LNG. It is planned to go into operation by the end of the decade, although schedules may change based on the global context.

  • This phase envisions two liquefaction vessels, each with a capacity of 6Mt/y.

  • Associated work includes building gas pipelines and subsea mooring infrastructure.

  • YPF is also a stakeholder (25% equity) in the Southern Energy LNG exporting project, which constitutes the first phase of Argentina LNG. This project involves two vessels (6Mt/y total capacity) and is expected to enter service in 2027. YPF will provide 28% of the natural gas under a tolling agreement. An FID was reached on the first vessel, and a decision on the second is due by end-July. Golar LNG would provide the vessels.

  • Phase 2, with planned production capacity of 10Mt/y, involves a partnership with Shell. An associated FID could be reached by end-2026.

  • Phases 2 and 3 will require project finance. The quality of proposed offtakers, such as Eni, is expected to help ease access to financing.

  • Target markets for the LNG produced are Europe and Asia.

  • The primary motivation for Argentina is to monetize the vast gas resources in the Vaca Muerta unconventionals formation. Current pipeline exports are limited by midstream capacity and demand factors.

In Conclusion

From technical trading signals for crude and natural gas to major industry deals and the volatile impacts of policy and wildfires, the global oil, gas, and energy landscape remains complex and dynamic. Keeping abreast of these diverse factors is crucial for understanding market movements and industry trends. Stay informed with the OG Oil Gas Energy Newsletter & Podcast!

Visit OGOILGASENERGYNEWS.com for more in-depth analysis, podcast episodes, and the latest news shaping the energy world.

Cited Sources:

• Excerpts from "BEL Valves seals £5m deal for Murlach oil field development in the North Sea - Business Live"

• Excerpts from "Breaking News: Bank of Canada Leaves Interest Rate at 2.75%, USD/CAD Steady"

• Excerpts from "DAX 40 trades marginally below record high as AUD/USD grinds higher and Brent crude oil slips | IG International"

• Excerpts from "Natural Gas Price Forecast: Gas Weakens After Brief Spike Above $3.76 | FXEmpire"

• Excerpts from "Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to See Same Resistance Level | FXEmpire"

• Excerpts from "Oil Prices Down - 04-06-25 - ARMENPRESS Armenian News Agency"

• Excerpts from "Oil Prices Up - 03/06/25 - ARMENPRESS Armenian News Agency"

• Excerpts from "See Trump’s Major Tariff Flip-Flops—As President's 50% Steel Tariffs Take Effect"

• Excerpts from "WTI Crude Oil Could Hit $64.15: Watch These Key Levels for a Potential Breakout - Forex News by FX Leaders"

• Excerpts from "WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for June 4, 2025"

• Excerpts from "WTI crude oil price pauses below resistance, with bulls eyeing breakout above $64.50"

• Excerpts from "Wildfires Slash Canadian Oil Output by 7 Percent | INN"

• Excerpts from "YPF targeting FID on phase 3 of Argentina LNG by year-end - BNamericas"